Development pro forma

Value, land residual & decision tests

What land price can the project support?

Overview · What & why

A decision, before a calculation.

Residual land value works backward from an assumed completed value. Deduct nonland development costs and the required developer margin to estimate what remains for land. The result is highly sensitive to income, valuation, scope and time. It is a negotiating input, not an appraisal or a guarantee that land can be purchased at that price.

A concrete example

At $15M value and $11.5M nonland cost, break-even land residual is $3.5M. Requiring $1.5M of value above cost leaves $2M for land. A $1M decline in value reduces supported land price dollar for dollar under these assumptions.

What to remember

Residual land value is a conclusion from assumptions, not an independent fact.

Before using this in a project: Completed value assumptions, all nonland costs, required margin and transaction conditions.